The ultimate race in the sport of long-distance running has always been the Olympic Marathon. Powered by the mythos of the storied Greek runner who died, and boosted by the four-year pause between races, the unrivaled global competition at The Games is the pinnacle of the sport. This summer’s Paris Olympic Marathon will draw the world’s attention. 

For American runners who love the sport though, the real excitement begins with the penultimate race: The United States Olympic Trials. Dreaming about the race elevates our heart rate, prompts heated debates, and puts us into fangirl/fanboy mode ready to cheer at the top of our lungs. In running vernacular, it is often called just “The Trials,” which plays to the crazy nature of a 26.2 mile footrace in which the country’s best marathoners clash and dash. 

Minnesotans will have 23 athletes with local ties to cheer for, and every one of them has taken a unique path to arrive at the starting line near Lake Eola Park in downtown Orlando at 10 a.m. (EST) Feb. 3. Some were Minnesota state high school cross country champions, some ran at the University of Minnesota, some were middling DIII competitors, some are Olympians already—but all trained intensely to hit the new standards to qualify for race. 

The 2024 US Olympic Trials qualifying time for men was pushed from 2:19 to 2:18—just a minute, but at 5:18 pace, that’s no easy gap. 

For women though, the qualifying time leapt from 2:45 to 2:37—a testament to how much American women’s running has advanced. To run under 2:37, a marathoner has to click off sub-six-minute miles.  

Any American who ran under those times from Jan. 1, 2022, to Dec. 5, 2023, qualified for the race (and a few qualified with half marathons under 1:03:00 for men and 1:12:00 for women). That’s 703 days of mind-boggling mile repeats, fatiguing fartleks, and brutal base-building. After the deadline, 227 men and 137 women met the goal. Twenty-six of them are either currently from Minnesota or were from here previously. (Three will not be running—Ben Blankenship is focusing on a 100-mile race, Rachel Drake is opting to run a 100K to qualify for Western States, and Emma Bates is recovering from an injury).  

Many of the elite qualifiers successfully pushed USATF, the governing body, and NBC, which will broadcast the race, to change the start time (it was initially set for noon) over concerns about the Florida heat and humidity. But none of that sideshow really matters for Minnesotans. We, as a people, have a natural inclination for migration to Florida in February. We go from the -20 windchill around Bde Maka Ska to the beachy bearfoot runs, basking in the sunshine. Of course, the local elites have already been acclimating, and our ‘23-’24 winter is sans snow anyway. 

So for our Olympic Trials runners from the North Star State, it won’t matter if the Florida sun and humidity emerge, or if the morning starts frosty and the orange trees’ crop is in danger. Several will be at the front, vying for a top-three finish: Dakotah Lindwurm, Annie Frisbee, Gabi Rooker, Joel Reichow, Biya Simbassa, and Reed Fischer are all big hitters. In typical Minnesotan fashion, they are also underdogs. But they are ready to rumble harder than a school of graphic designers wrestling over what loon design will go on the new state flag. 

The top three finishers on the women’s side will be named to the Olympic team and given their kit to wear on the morning of Aug. 10 in Paris. 

For the men though, the story is a little more complicated. Well, a lot more complicated. The top two men will be named to the team, but a third American male runner is not guaranteed at the Olympic race. 

Here’s why: Countries can send a runner only if they meet one of two criteria. The first is having a countryman run under 2:08:10. This “unlocks” a spot for whomever the country decides to send. The second criteria is a top 80 ranking in the “Road to Paris” list published by World Athletics (only 80 athletes will be in the Olympic race). Athletes are granted points for the speed of their marathons and their placing in competitive races. 

The United States “unlocked” two spots at the 2023 Chicago Marathon when Connor Mantz ran 2:07:47 and Clayton Young ran 2:08:00. 

If the Trials was an uber-fast race, maybe someone will break 2:08:10 and the third spot will be unlocked. Could it happen in the Florida humidity? Maybe, but not likely. 

More likely is an American staying in the top 80 of the “Road to Paris” list. Currently, NAZ Elite athlete Scott Fauble is 213th on that list, but since only the top three from each country count in the rankings, he is ranked 69th. 

If everything stayed the same until May, when the list closes, Fauble’s ranking could “unlock” the third spot on the team, which seems almost assured. But he could be knocked down 10 places if we see record-fast times from runners in countries that don’t already have three runners on the list. Think Tanzania, Lesotho, Nigeria, Rwanda, Somalia. 

So it is likely, but not guaranteed, that Fauble’s ranking could “unlock” the third spot on the team. This would allow the third-place finisher at the Olympic Trials Marathon to punch their ticket to the global stage.

Though there is one more catch. 

The US Olympic men’s marathon team can only consist of runners who have dipped under 2:11:30 in a qualifying race. Less than 20 men have done so, which means that the Trials race will have to be fast (like 2:11:29 fast) for anyone who wants to finish top three and has not yet run that standard. So far, only 18 of the qualifiers have run under 2:11:30, and three of them are locals: Biya Simbassa, Joel Reichow, and Reed Fischer. 

The American women have none of this trouble because, well, we’re in a new day of distance running for American women. More than 13 have run under the 2:26:50 Olympic qualifying standard, which includes Dakotah Lindwurm, Gabi Rooker, and Emma Bates.  This will make for an epic Trials race that many, including Trials veteran Des Linden, are saying will be the best US competition ever. And the top three will be Paris bound without any complication.

Could one be a Minnesotan? We believe it! We tracked down all the qualifiers with connections to the Gopher State. Read through, pick your top three, get some popcorn and watch the race unfold in Orlando.